“In 1970, Stanford professor Paul Ehrlich published a famous book, The Population Bomb, in which he described a disasterous future for humanity:
‘The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s and 1980s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now.’
That prediction turned out to be very wrong, and in this interview American Enterprise Institute scholar Nicholas Eberstadt tells how we are in fact heading toward the opposite problem: not enough people. For decades now, many countries have been unable to sustain a #population replacement birth rate, including in Western Europe, South Korea, Japan, and, most ominously, China. The societal and social impacts of this phenomenon are vast. We discuss those with Eberstadt as well as some strategies to avoid them.”
Out take [35:22]:
“…All right this gets us right to the heart of of your essay and of the matter quoting you yet again the single best predictor for National fertility rates happens to be wanted family size as reported by women now you note there are polls that ask women how many children they’d like and you know that this doesn’t correlate perfectly with birth rates but it’s the best indicator in one sense this is a reassuring even heartening finding it highlights the agency at the very heart of our Humanity…
[“You’re talking about free will there people choosing their family size but if we permit the non-material realm of life to figure into our inquiry we may conclude that proposals to revive the American birth rate through subsidies vastly underestimate the challenge the challenge May ultimately prove to be civilizational in nature”]
okay so I look at first of all that hits like a two by four — civilizational in nature — and on the one hand I think to myself wait a minute aren’t we all supposed to be delighted that in this modern world women are in a position to participate in the workforce they’re in a position to choose more carefully more explicitly more intentionally the number of children they’d like to have aren’t we supposed to believe that that’s a wonderful thing and that releasing that many women to the workforce should increase the dynamism and growth of our [economy]…and all that…good, good, good…”
University of Rochester New York
