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Electrical Resource Adequacy

 “When buying and selling are controlled by legislation,
the first things to be bought and sold are legislators.”
— P.J. O’Rourke

 

“Federal Power Act” | June 10, 1920, Chapter 285 of the 66th Congress] 

Comment on FERC Action

Our interest lies in closing a technical gap that exists upstream from the building service point and downstream from the utility supply point. Some, not all of it, can be accomplished with titles in the IEEE catalog.

Given the dominance of vertical incumbents in the electric power domain, we will submit a tranche of reliability concepts into the ASHRAE, NFPA and ICC catalogs — not so much with the expectation that they will be gratefully received — but that our proposals will unleash competitive energies among developers of voluntary consensus standards.


Commissioner-Led Reliability Technical Conference Agenda: October 16, 2024, 10:00 AM

 


Nothing happened in August

Technical Conference RE: Large Loads Co-Located at Generating Facilities: November 1, 10AM EDT

Echo Chamber Synonyms: mutual admiration society, self congratulatory club,

back patting session, congratulatory loop, closed loop of praise, reciprocal praise fest,

feedback bubble, endless validation cycle, compliment carousel.

Predictive Reliability Analysis of Power Distribution Systems Considering the Effects of Seasonal Factors on Outage Data Using Weibull Analysis Combined With Polynomial Regression


February 2024 Highlights 

Failure Rate Prediction Model of Substation Equipment Based on Weibull Distribution and Time Series Analysis

January 2024 Highlights



Transmission Planning Using a Reliability Criterion

Readings / The Administrative State

In power system engineering, availability and reliability are two important concepts, but they refer to different aspects of the system’s performance.

Reliability:

  • Reliability refers to the ability of a power system to perform its intended function without failure for a specified period under given operating conditions. It is essentially a measure of how dependable the system is.
  • Reliability metrics often include indices such as the frequency and duration of outages, failure rates, mean time between failures (MTBF), and similar measures.
  • Reliability analysis focuses on identifying potential failure modes, predicting failure probabilities, and implementing measures to mitigate risks and improve system resilience.Availability:
  • Availability, on the other hand, refers to the proportion of time that a power system is operational and able to deliver power when needed, considering both scheduled and unscheduled downtime.
  • Availability is influenced by factors such as maintenance schedules, repair times, and system design redundancies.
  • Availability is typically expressed as a percentage and can be calculated using the ratio of the uptime to the total time (uptime plus downtime).
  • Availability analysis aims to maximize the operational readiness of the system by minimizing downtime and optimizing maintenance strategies.

Reliability focuses on the likelihood of failure and the ability of the system to sustain operations over time, while availability concerns the actual uptime and downtime of the system, reflecting its readiness to deliver power when required. Both concepts are crucial for assessing and improving the performance of power systems, but they address different aspects of system behavior.

 

November 2023 Highlights | FERC insight | Volume 10

Determining System and Subsystem Availability Requirements: Resource Planning and Evaluation

Comment: These 1-hour sessions tend to be administrative in substance, meeting the minimum requirements of the Sunshine Act. This meeting was no exception. Access to the substance of the docket is linked here.

Noteworthy: Research into the natural gas supply following Winter Storm Elliot.

 


August 14, 2003


 UPDATED POLICIES ON U.S. DECARBONIZATION AND TECHNOLOGY TRANSITIONS


June 15:FERC Finalizes Plans to Boost Grid Reliability in Extreme Weather Conditions

On Monday June 13th, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission commissioners informed the House Committee on Energy and Commerce that the “environmental justice” agenda prohibits reliable dispatchable electric power needed for national power security. One megawatt of natural gas generation does not equal one megawatt of renewable generation. The minority party on the committee — the oldest standing legislative committee in the House of Representatives (established 1795) — appears indifferent to the reliability consequences of its policy.

Joint Federal-State Task Force on Electric Transmission

“Our nation’s continued energy transition requires the efficient development of new transmission infrastructure. Federal and state regulators must address numerous transmission-related issues, including how to plan and pay for new transmission infrastructure and how to navigate shared federal-state regulatory authority and processes. As a result, the time is ripe for greater federal-state coordination and cooperation.”












 

Bibliography:

Natural Gas Act of 1938

Natural Gas Policy Act of 1978

Glossary of Terms Used in NERC Reliability Standards

The Major Questions Doctrine and Transmission Planning Reform

As utilities spend billions on transmission, support builds for independent monitoring

States press FERC for independent monitors on transmission planning, spending as Southern Co. balks

Related:

Homeland Power Security

At the July 20th meeting of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Tristan Kessler explained the technical basis for a Draft Final Rule for Improvements to Generator Interconnection Procedures and Agreements, On August 16th the Commission posted a video reflecting changes in national energy policy since August 14, 2003; the largest blackout in American history.

Reflections / John Nash

“Non-Cooperative Games” 1951 | John Nash

Brian Keating: Cosmology, Astrophysics, Aliens & Losing the Nobel Prize

 

Abiit sed non oblitus | Michigan

One-hundred-twenty-five years ago, hardy and hard-working Finnish Lutheran immigrants founded a school in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula. Their lives were marked by a gritty quality captured in the Finnish term, sisu – grit and perseverance in the face of adversity.  Citing financial difficulties related to demographic changes, the Board of Trustees announced that the Class of 2023 was Finlandia’s final graduating class.

“The Board of Trustees and University President Timothy Pinnow stated the extremely difficult decision is the result of an intensive analysis of Finlandia’s operations after exploring all potentially feasible strategic alternatives, including the rigorous search for new partnerships and reorganization of the institution’s finances. With financial challenges impacting liberal arts colleges throughout the country, Finlandia is no exception….

The combination of demographic changes, with fewer high school graduates available, a steep decrease in interest in going to college among those graduates, a dwindling endowment, and an unbearable debt load have made Finlandia no longer viable…

…Finlandia University has finalized eight Teach-Out Agreements with Adrian College, Bay College, Michigan Technological University, Northeast Wisconsin Technical College, Northern Michigan University, University of Dubuque, Waldorf University, and Wartburg College. Several non-partnering institutions have also made commitments to supporting FinnU students in incredible ways…”

Board of Trustees vote to dissolve University wind up affairs in orderly manner

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Evensong “Simple Gifts”

Standards Maryland

University of Maryland Symphony Orchestra: “Appalachian Spring” Aaron Copland, 1944


 

Standards Maryland

Solar Panels on King’s College Chapel Roof

“…The solar panels will populate the gothic chapel roof, producing an approximate 105,000 kWh of energy a year – enough to run the chapel’s electricity, and saving around £20,000 in energy bills per year. The college confirmed that any excess energy would be sold off to the national grid.

King’s College Announcement

Solar Panels on King’s College Chapel Roof

Solar panels perform better when listening to music:

A 2013 study by researchers at Imperial College London and Queen Mary University of London showed that solar panels actually work better when exposed to music, of multiple genres. Scientists at the university proved that when exposed to high pitched sounds, like those found in rock and pop music, the solar cells’ power output increased by up to 40 percent. Classical music was also found to increase the solar cells’ energy production, but slightly less so than rock and pop, as it generally plays at a lower pitch than pop and rock. Whether they know it or not, British band Coldplay are just one of the artists benefitting from this research. During their 2021 tour, they installed solar photovoltaic panels in the build-up to each show, “behind the stage, around the stadium and where possible in the outer concourses”…

BS 7671 Requirements for Electrical Installations

The Major Differences in Electrical Standards Between the U.S. and Europe

Representative Calculation: (WAG)

To determine how much electrical power and lighting 12 kilowatts (kW) will provide for an educational facility, we need to consider the following factors:

    1. Power Distribution: How the 12 kW will be distributed across different electrical needs such as lighting, computers, HVAC (heating, ventilation, and air conditioning), and other equipment.
    2. Lighting Requirements: The specific lighting requirements per square foot or room, which can vary based on the type of facility (classrooms, libraries, laboratories, etc.).
    3. Efficiency of Lighting: The type of lighting used (e.g., LED, fluorescent, incandescent) as this affects the power consumption and lighting output.

We start with lighting.

    1. Lighting Efficiency:
      • LED lights are highly efficient, typically around 100 lumens per watt.
      • Fluorescent lights are less efficient, around 60-70 lumens per watt.
    2. Lighting Power Calculation:
      • 12 kW (12,000 watts) of LED lighting at 100 lumens per watt would provide: 12,000 watts×100 lumens/watt=1,200,000 lumens
    3. Illumination Requirements:
      • Classroom: Approximately 300-500 lux (lumens per square meter).
      • Library or laboratory: Approximately 500-750 lux.
    4. Area Coverage:
      • If we target 500 lux (which is 500 lumens per square meter), we can calculate the area covered by the lighting: (1,200,000 lumens)/ 500 lux=2,400 square meters

Now we need to allocate power to other loads.

    1. Lighting: Assuming 50% of the 12 kW goes to lighting:
      • Lighting Power: 6 kW (6,000 watts)
      • Using the previous calculation: 6,000 watts×100 lumens/watt=600,000 lumens
      • Area Coverage for lighting (at 500 lux): (600,000 lumens)/500 lux=1,200 square meters
    2. Other Electrical Needs:
      • Computers and equipment: Typically, a computer lab might use around 100 watts per computer.
      • HVAC: This can vary widely, but let’s assume 4 kW is allocated for HVAC and other systems.

Breakdown:

    • Lighting: 6 kW
    • Computers/Equipment: 2 kW (e.g., 20 computers at 100 watts each)
    • HVAC and other systems: 4 kW

Summary

    • Lighting: 12 kW can provide efficient LED lighting for approximately 1,200 square meters at 500 lux.
    • General Use: When distributed, 12 kW can cover lighting, a computer lab with 20 computers, and basic HVAC needs for a small to medium-sized educational facility.

The exact capacity will vary based on specific facility needs and equipment efficiency.

 

 

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