Electrical Resource Adequacy

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Electrical Resource Adequacy

July 1, 2025
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 “When buying and selling are controlled by legislation,
the first things to be bought and sold are legislators.”
— P.J. O’Rourke

 

“Federal Power Act” | June 10, 1920, Chapter 285 of the 66th Congress] 

Comment on FERC Action

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission is an independent agency within the U.S. federal government that regulates interstate transmission of electricity, natural gas, and oil. It oversees wholesale energy markets, pipeline infrastructure, and hydroelectric projects, ensuring fair rates and reliability. While independent, FERC operates under the Department of Energy’s umbrella but does not take direct orders from the executive branch.

FERC enforces energy laws, approves infrastructure projects, and regulates market competition. FERC plays a crucial role in balancing economic, environmental, and energy security concerns, aiming to maintain a stable and efficient energy system across the United States.  Since the U.S. shares interconnected electricity grids with Canada and Mexico, FERC’s decisions on transmission rules and pricing affect energy flows and grid reliability in both countries.

Our interest lies in closing a technical gap that exists upstream from the building service point and downstream from the utility supply point. Some, not all of it, can be accomplished with titles in the IEEE catalog.

Given the dominance of vertical incumbents in the electric power domain, we have submitted a tranche of reliability concepts into the ASHRAE, NFPA and ICC catalogs — not so much with the expectation that they will be gratefully received — but that our proposals will unleash competitive energies among developers of voluntary consensus standards.

One of our proposals was heard at the April-May meetings of the International Code Council.  We are happy to discuss the outcome of that proposal any day at the usual hour.

Commissioner-Led Reliability Technical Conference Agenda: October 16, 2024, 10:00 AM

 

Nothing happened in August

Technical Conference RE: Large Loads Co-Located at Generating Facilities: November 1, 10AM EDT

Echo Chamber Synonyms: mutual admiration society, self congratulatory club,

back patting session, congratulatory loop, closed loop of praise, reciprocal praise fest,

feedback bubble, endless validation cycle, compliment carousel.

Predictive Reliability Analysis of Power Distribution Systems Considering the Effects of Seasonal Factors on Outage Data Using Weibull Analysis Combined With Polynomial Regression

February 2024 Highlights 

Failure Rate Prediction Model of Substation Equipment Based on Weibull Distribution and Time Series Analysis

January 2024 Highlights

Transmission Planning Using a Reliability Criterion

Readings / The Administrative State

In power system engineering, availability and reliability are two important concepts, but they refer to different aspects of the system’s performance.

Reliability:

  • Reliability refers to the ability of a power system to perform its intended function without failure for a specified period under given operating conditions. It is essentially a measure of how dependable the system is.
  • Reliability metrics often include indices such as the frequency and duration of outages, failure rates, mean time between failures (MTBF), and similar measures.
  • Reliability analysis focuses on identifying potential failure modes, predicting failure probabilities, and implementing measures to mitigate risks and improve system resilience.Availability:
  • Availability, on the other hand, refers to the proportion of time that a power system is operational and able to deliver power when needed, considering both scheduled and unscheduled downtime.
  • Availability is influenced by factors such as maintenance schedules, repair times, and system design redundancies.
  • Availability is typically expressed as a percentage and can be calculated using the ratio of the uptime to the total time (uptime plus downtime).
  • Availability analysis aims to maximize the operational readiness of the system by minimizing downtime and optimizing maintenance strategies.

Reliability focuses on the likelihood of failure and the ability of the system to sustain operations over time, while availability concerns the actual uptime and downtime of the system, reflecting its readiness to deliver power when required. Both concepts are crucial for assessing and improving the performance of power systems, but they address different aspects of system behavior.

 

November 2023 Highlights | FERC insight | Volume 10

Determining System and Subsystem Availability Requirements: Resource Planning and Evaluation

Comment: These 1-hour sessions tend to be administrative in substance, meeting the minimum requirements of the Sunshine Act. This meeting was no exception. Access to the substance of the docket is linked here.

Noteworthy: Research into the natural gas supply following Winter Storm Elliot.

December 2022 Winter Storm Elliott Grid Operations: Key Findings and Recommendations (Joint Inquiry)

 

August 14, 2003

 UPDATED POLICIES ON U.S. DECARBONIZATION AND TECHNOLOGY TRANSITIONS

June 15:FERC Finalizes Plans to Boost Grid Reliability in Extreme Weather Conditions

On Monday June 13th, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission commissioners informed the House Committee on Energy and Commerce that the “environmental justice” agenda prohibits reliable dispatchable electric power needed for national power security. One megawatt of natural gas generation does not equal one megawatt of renewable generation. The minority party on the committee — the oldest standing legislative committee in the House of Representatives (established 1795) — appears indifferent to the reliability consequences of its policy.

Joint Federal-State Task Force on Electric Transmission

“Our nation’s continued energy transition requires the efficient development of new transmission infrastructure. Federal and state regulators must address numerous transmission-related issues, including how to plan and pay for new transmission infrastructure and how to navigate shared federal-state regulatory authority and processes. As a result, the time is ripe for greater federal-state coordination and cooperation.”











 

Bibliography:

Natural Gas Act of 1938

Natural Gas Policy Act of 1978

Glossary of Terms Used in NERC Reliability Standards

The Major Questions Doctrine and Transmission Planning Reform

As utilities spend billions on transmission, support builds for independent monitoring

States press FERC for independent monitors on transmission planning, spending as Southern Co. balks

Related:

Homeland Power Security

At the July 20th meeting of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Tristan Kessler explained the technical basis for a Draft Final Rule for Improvements to Generator Interconnection Procedures and Agreements, On August 16th the Commission posted a video reflecting changes in national energy policy since August 14, 2003; the largest blackout in American history.

Summer Meals

June 30, 2025
mike@standardsmichigan.com
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Summer Meals for Kids Site Finder

Ann Arbor Public Schools | Student Summer Food Service Program
|

Readings

“The Negro Family: The Case For National Action” 1965 Daniel Patrick Moynihan

“Black Rednecks and White Liberals” by Thomas Sowell

“Please Stop Helping Us: How Liberals Make It Harder for Blacks to Succeed” by Jason L. Riley

“Losing the Race: Self-Sabotage in Black America” by John McWhorter

Related:

Kitchens 100

Kitchens 200

Kitchens 300

Commercial Kitchens

Colloquy (June)

June 30, 2025
mike@standardsmichigan.com
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Open agenda; Not Too Organized. Whatever anyone wants to talk about.  We do this once every month.  Use the login credentials at the upper right of our home page.

 

Summer Hours at our State Street Office: 8:30 AM – 4:00 PM

Join us for lunch 11:45 AM – 1:15 PM every Wednesday at the University of Michigan Business School

 

Retrodiction

Education & Healthcare Facility Electrotechnology Committee

 

AI Risk Management Framework

June 30, 2025
mike@standardsmichigan.com
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We list notable NIST projects or efforts related to LLMs, based on available information from NIST’s publications and initiatives. These projects emphasize NIST’s role in advancing measurement science, standards, and guidelines for trustworthy AI systems, including LLMs. Note that some projects are specific studies, while others are broader programs that encompass LLMs.
  • Evaluating LLMs for Real-World Vulnerability Repair in C/C++ Code
    NIST conducted a study to evaluate the capability of advanced LLMs, such as ChatGPT-4 and Claude, in repairing memory corruption vulnerabilities in real-world C/C++ code. The project curated 223 code snippets with vulnerabilities like memory leaks and buffer errors, assessing LLMs’ proficiency in generating localized fixes. This work highlights LLMs’ potential in automated code repair and identifies limitations in handling complex vulnerabilities.
  • Translating Natural Language Specifications into Access Control Policies
    This project explores the use of LLMs for automated translation and information extraction of access control policies from natural language sources. By leveraging prompt engineering techniques, NIST demonstrated improved efficiency and accuracy in converting human-readable requirements into machine-interpretable policies, advancing automation in security systems.
  • Assessing Risks and Impacts of AI (ARIA) Program
    NIST’s ARIA program evaluates the societal risks and impacts of AI systems, including LLMs, in realistic settings. The program includes a testing, evaluation, validation, and verification (TEVV) framework to understand LLM capabilities, such as controlled access to privileged information, and their broader societal effects. This initiative aims to establish guidelines for safe AI deployment.
  • AI Risk Management Framework (AI RMF)
    NIST developed the AI RMF to guide the responsible use of AI, including LLMs. This framework provides a structured approach to managing risks associated with AI systems, offering tools and benchmarks for governance, risk assessment, and operationalizing trustworthy AI across various sectors. It’s widely applied in LLM-related projects.
  • AI Standards “Zero Drafts” Pilot Project
    Launched to accelerate AI innovation, this project focuses on developing AI standards, including those relevant to LLMs, through an open and collaborative process. It aims to create flexible guidelines that evolve with LLM advancements, encouraging input from stakeholders to ensure robust standards.
  • Technical Language Processing (TLP) Tutorial
    NIST collaborated on a TLP tutorial at the 15th Annual Conference of the Prognostics and Health Management Society to foster awareness and education on processing large volumes of text using machine learning, including LLMs. The project explored how LLMs can assist in content analysis and topic modeling for research and engineering applications.
  • Evaluation of LLM Security Against Data Extraction Attacks
    NIST investigated vulnerabilities in LLMs, such as training data extraction attacks, using the example of GPT-2 (a predecessor to modern LLMs). This project, referencing techniques developed by Carlini et al., aims to understand and mitigate privacy risks in LLMs, contributing to safer model deployment.
  • Fundamental Research on AI Measurements
    As part of NIST’s AI portfolio, this project conducts fundamental research to establish scientific foundations for measuring LLM performance, risks, and interactions. It includes developing evaluation metrics, benchmarks, and standards to ensure LLMs are reliable and trustworthy in diverse applications.
  • Adversarial Machine Learning (AML) Taxonomy for LLMs
    NIST developed a taxonomy of adversarial machine learning attacks, including those targeting LLMs, such as evasion, data poisoning, privacy, and abuse attacks. This project standardizes terminology and provides guidance to enhance LLM security against malicious manipulations, benefiting both cybersecurity and AI communities.
  • Use-Inspired AI Research for LLM Applications
    NIST’s AI portfolio includes use-inspired research to advance LLM applications across government agencies and industries. This project develops guidelines and tools to operationalize LLMs responsibly, focusing on practical implementations like text summarization, translation, and question-answering systems.

Remarks:

  • These projects reflect NIST’s focus on evaluating, standardizing, and securing LLMs rather than developing LLMs themselves. NIST’s role is to provide frameworks, guidelines, and evaluations to ensure trustworthy AI.
  • Some projects, like ARIA and AI RMF, are broad programs that encompass LLMs among other AI systems, but they include specific LLM-related evaluations or applications.

 

2024+ Student Paper Competition

June 30, 2025
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ANSI Student Paper Competition paused for 2025

No award for the 2024 cycle (per COE Chairperson)

“A Girl Writing; The Pet Goldfinch” 1870 Henriette Browne

 

The Society for Standardization Professionals Paper Competition 2025

 

 

Updated January 7, 2024

 

For nearly twenty years now,  the American National Standards Institute Committee on Education administers a student paper competition intended to encourage understanding of the global standards system that also provides a solid prize — in the $1000 to $5000 range.  The topic of the 2024 Student Paper Competition will be What Role Do or Could Standards Play in Safe and Effective Implementation of Artificial Intelligence Applications/Systems?

Student Paper Competition Flyer 2024 – Entries due 7 June 2024

For the past six years Standards Michigan has hosted Saturday morning workshops to help students (and faculty) interested in entering the contest.   We will soon post those dates on our CALENDER.  We typically host them — three sessions ahead of the deadline — on Saturday mornings.

We provide links to previous paper winners and refer you to Lisa Rajchel: lrajchel@ansi.org for all other details.

Related:

 

“Normal” Things Americans Do That The Rest Of The World Will Never Understand

ANSI Accredited Standards Developers | Contact Information

2023 Student Paper Competition

2022 Student Paper Competition

2020 Student Paper Winner / Remanufacturing

2020 Student Paper Winner / Road Traffic Safety

ANSI 2019 Student Paper Winner: Cybersecurity & Ukraine Power Grid Attack

2019 Student Paper Winner / Standards in Crisis Prevention & Response:

2018 ANSI Student Paper Winner / Internet of Things

2017 ANSI Student Paper Winner / Cyborg Gen 2330

2016 Student Paper Winner | Life, Liberty and Pursuit of Happiness

2016 Student Paper Winner / World Without Standards

United States Standards Strategy

Update Status

June 30, 2025
mike@standardsmichigan.com
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We continue sorting through anomalies with Godaddy Tech Support to resolve Standards Michigan requirement for frequent and timely updates across all of our platforms.  The problem apparently lies with legacy plug-ins and widgets not yet caught up with the most recent WordPress release. 6.8.1 dated May 7th.  Our normal course of business is not effected but some of the visual features will be looking a bit janky until we get it fixed.  To wit:

The Weblizar slider plug in we have used for 10+ year seems to have fallen off the beaten path.  Our frequent visitors and clients will notice the ugly black background and small text.  We hope we can continue working with Weblizar if they can restore the customization feature of their plug in.

  • Posts are not updating across all platforms — particularly on X on iPhones.  Usually a caching problem and not one we haven’t seen before.
  • Some images will not center.
  • Footer and right-side widgets not loading properly.
  • Some, not all, slider images are not loading at high resolution.

The good news is that all our content, including media, survived the WordPress upgrade.  The next step in our “GoDaddy Journey” will be another PHP upgrade.  There will likely be surprises but none that we cannot handle.

In any case, timeliness and normal content flow has not been interrupted.   Much like the hardware in ICT software must also be maintained.

This page will be posted to our X-feed: @StandardsMich to remind our colleagues and followers that software needs to be “maintained”

Reflections / John Nash

June 29, 2025
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“Non-Cooperative Games” 1951 | John Nash

Brian Keating: Cosmology, Astrophysics, Aliens & Losing the Nobel Prize

 

Standards for American Prosperity

June 29, 2025
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Crucial Role of Standards for American Prosperity Highlighted in CSIS Roundtable Session with S. Joe Bhatia

 

Here are some of the ways in which government regulations impede economic growth:

  1. Increased costs: Regulations can impose additional costs on businesses, which can affect their ability to operate efficiently and compete in the marketplace. For example, regulations can require businesses to invest in new technologies or processes to comply with environmental or safety standards, which can increase their expenses.
  2. Reduced innovation: Some people believe that regulations can stifle innovation and entrepreneurship, as businesses may be hesitant to invest in new products or technologies that could be subject to strict regulations. This can limit the potential for new businesses to emerge and grow.
  3. Slowed job growth: Regulations can increase the cost of doing business, which can lead to reduced hiring and slower job growth. This can be particularly challenging for small businesses that may not have the resources to comply with regulatory requirements.
  4. Reduced competition: Regulations can sometimes create barriers to entry for new businesses, which can reduce competition and limit economic growth. This can be particularly true in industries that are heavily regulated, such as healthcare and finance.
  5. Reduced trade: Regulations can make it more difficult for businesses to operate in international markets, as they may face additional regulatory requirements and trade barriers. This can limit economic growth and reduce opportunities for businesses to expand their operations.

It is important to note that regulations can also have benefits, such as protecting consumers and the environment, promoting fair competition, and fostering innovation. It’s essential to strike a balance between regulatory requirements and economic growth to ensure that businesses can thrive while also protecting public health and safety. 

The U.S. Standards System effectively provides a “shadow government” that runs parallel to the elected government so that a balance of informed voices are present in formulating what Montesquieu called the “necessary laws”.   See our ABOUT.

More

NIST: Procedures for the Development of American National Standards

ANSI Essential Requirements: Due process requirements for American National Standards

Office of Management & Budget Circulars in Numerical Sequence

MIT Chapel,1954

June 29, 2025
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Eero Saarinen‘s MIT Chapel is widely regarded as a masterpiece of modernist architecture and has been praised by architectural critics for its innovative design and spiritual atmosphere. Here are some examples of what critics have written about the chapel:

Ada Louise Huxtable, writing in The New York Times in 1955, described the chapel as a “sacred space of rare and exceptional quality” and praised its “dramatic contrasts of light and dark, scale and detail, intensity and serenity.”

Vincent Scully, writing in Architectural Forum in 1956, called the chapel “a consummate work of art” and praised Saarinen’s use of light and form to create a “subtle and mysterious” atmosphere.

Reyner Banham, writing in New Society in 1964, described the chapel as “an object of timeless quality” and praised its “radiant luminescence” and “clear and quiet” spatial qualities.

Paul Goldberger, writing in The New York Times in 2003, called the chapel “one of the great architectural treasures of the 20th century” and praised its “perfectly balanced” combination of light, color, and texture.

Overall, critics have praised the MIT Chapel for its innovative design, its spiritual atmosphere, and its skillful use of light and form. The chapel is considered one of Saarinen’s most important works and a landmark of modernist architecture.

MIT Visual Arts Center

Our Short Documentary: Meral Ekincioglu, Ph.D

Interview: David Adjaye at MIT

Reconstructing the MIT Chapel

Standards Massachusetts

International Existing Building Code

Encourages the use and reuse of existing buildings. This code covers repair, alteration, addition and change of occupancy for existing buildings. and historic buildings, while achieving appropriate levels of safety without requiring full compliance with the new construction requirements contained in the other I-Codes. Key changes in the 2021 IEBC® include:

    • For storm shelters, the required occupant capacity is now limited to the total occupant load of the classrooms, vocational rooms and offices in the school while the maximum distance of travel was deleted.
    • When significant portions of a building’s exterior wall coverings or exterior wall envelope are added or replaced, they must comply with the requirements of Chapters 14 and 26 of the IBC.
    • Snow loads must be addressed during repair of substantial structural damage regardless of whether the damage was a result of snow.
    • Additions, Level 3 alterations and Changes of occupancy in Educational occupancies are now required to meet the enhanced classroom acoustic requirements of Section 808 of ICC A117.1.
    • Additional equipment may be added to a roof without a full structural analysis when the equipment weighs less than 400 pounds and is less than 10 percent of the total roof dead load.
    • With a change of occupancy, a seismic analysis is required for a Group S or Group U occupancy changing to a new occupancy.
    • Furniture, such as office cubicles, reception desks or smaller bookcases, are exempt from a permit and not intended to be a Level 2 alteration.
    • Sprinkler requirements for Level 2 and Level 3 alterations are revised for higher hazard areas.

Sacred Spaces

Timon of Athens

June 28, 2025
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The Oxford Union Debating Society, founded in 1823, is one of the world’s most prestigious debating societies, affiliated with the University of Oxford. It has hosted numerous influential speakers and debates, including historical figures like Winston Churchill and Malcolm X. Over the years, it has played a vital role in shaping public discourse and fostering critical thinking among students. The society’s iconic debating chamber and rich tradition of lively debates have made it an enduring institution in the world of debate and public speaking.

“In an era of cancellation and defenestration we sometimes forget that we both cannot go on like this and that we have been here before. We know this because our greatest writers and artists have addressed this question in their own times.

When Roger [Scrouton] was going through his own battle with the shallows I often thought of Shakespeare’s rarely performed but great play Timon of Athens. Timon has the whole world before him. He is surrounded by friends and admirers. He is generous to all. Yet he falls on hard times and when he does absolutely everybody deserts him. He is left with nothing and nobody, and risks being filled with despair and rage. It does not help that he is shadowed by the cynical philosopher Apemantus, who has warned him that just such a desertion might occur.”

— Douglas Murray

 

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