Fooled by Randomness

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Fooled by Randomness

July 13, 2025
mike@standardsmichigan.com
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In his books, The Black Swan and Antifragile, Nassim Nicholas Taleb observes that freak disasters—rare, high-impact events—are unpredictable and often underestimated due to their low probability. He calls these “Black Swan” events, characterized by their extreme rarity, severe consequences, and retrospective predictability. Taleb argues that people and systems are overly reliant on normalcy and linear models, ignoring the potential for such outliers.

These disasters expose the fragility of complex systems, like financial markets or infrastructure, which are unprepared for extreme shocks. In Antifragile, he contrasts fragile systems with antifragile ones, which thrive under stress. Taleb emphasizes that freak disasters are not anomalies but inevitable in a complex world, urging risk management that accounts for uncertainty rather than predictability. He critiques overconfidence in forecasting and advocates for building resilience to mitigate the devastating effects of these unpredictable events.

We cover this ground, more than tangentially, in our activism in disaster management standards setting.   Our coverage of this topic dates back to 1993 which the links below should reveal.  We will expand upon this topic as more information is derived from this past week’s events in Kerr County Texas.

https://standardsmichigan.com/disaster-500/

 

Sport News

July 12, 2025
mike@standardsmichigan.com
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Sport Standards

 

 

Mixed Gender Sport by Design

Engineering in Sport



 

Winter Sport

Lively 400

July 11, 2025
mike@standardsmichigan.com

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The term “lively arts” is attributed to American writer and poet James Thurber. It was popularized in the mid-20th century as a way to describe various forms of performing arts, such as theater, dance, music, and other creative expressions.

Curtain for the Lviv Theatre of Opera and Ballet

 

“What art is, in reality, is this missing link,  not the links which exist.

It’s not what you see that is art; art is the gap”

— Marcel Duchamp

 

Today we refresh our understanding of the literature that guides the safety and sustainability goals of lively art events in educational settlements.  Consortia have evolved quickly in recent years, leading and lagging changes in the content creation and delivery domain.  With this evolution a professional discipline has emerged that requires training and certification in the electrotechnologies that contribute to “event safety”; among them:

ASHRAE International

Standard 62.1: This standard establishes minimum ventilation rates and indoor air quality requirements for commercial buildings, including theaters and auditoriums.

Standard 55: This standard specifies thermal comfort conditions for occupants in indoor environments, which can have an impact on air quality.

Audio Engineering Society

Audio Visual and Experience Association

Entertainment Services and Technology Association

Event Safety Alliance

International Code Council

International Building Code: Section 303.2 Assembly Group A-1

Illumination Engineering Society

RP-16-17 Lighting for Theatrical Productions: This standard provides guidance on the design and implementation of lighting systems for theatrical productions. It includes information on the use of color, light direction, and light intensity to create different moods and effects.

RP-30-15 Recommended Practice for the Design of Theatres and Auditoriums: This standard provides guidance on the design of theaters and auditoriums, including lighting systems. It covers topics such as seating layout, stage design, and acoustics, as well as lighting design considerations.

DG-24-19 Design Guide for Color and Illumination: This guide provides information on the use of color in lighting design, including color temperature, color rendering, and color mixing. It is relevant to theater lighting design as well as other applications.

Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers

Research on Safety Integrity Level Assessment for Stage Machinery of Temporary Performance Site

Necessity of Establishing the Stage Technical Standards for Outdoor Live Performance Theater

Comparison of Technical Systems between Outdoor Live Performance Stage and Indoor Theater Stage

National Center for Spectator Sports Safety and Security

National Fire Protection Association

Life Safety Code

National Electrical Code

Articles 518-540: Arenas, Lecture Halls & Theaters

Society of Motion Picture Technology Engineers

Professional Lighting and Sound Association

Dance and Athletic Floor Product Standards: ASTM F2118, EN 14904, DIN 18032-2

Incumbent standards-setting organizations such as ASHRAE, ASTM, ICC, IEEE, NFPA have also discovered, integrated and promulgated event safety and sustainability concepts into their catalog of best practice titles; many already incorporated by reference into public safety law.   We explore relevant research on crowd management and spectator safety.

Planning and Managing Security for Major Special Events

 

“Art is anything you can get away with” — Marshall McLuhan

 

More

International Code Council (N.B. Changes to its Code Development Process) 

International Building Code: Entertainment Occupancies

Section 410: Stages, Platforms and Technical Production Areas

National Electrical Code: Articles 518 – 540 

Code-Making Panel 15 (NEC-P15): Public Input Report 10/1/2020

Code-Making Panel 15 (NEC-P15): Public Comment Report  11/18/2021

ASHRAE 62.1 Ventilation for Acceptable Indoor Air Quality

Princeton University: Set Design & Construction

Building the Virtual Stage: A System for Enabling Mixed Reality Theatre

University of California: Special Effects Safety and Loss Prevention

University of San Francisco Special Effects Safety

Dance Floors v. Sports Floors

Today in History

Theater Safety

July 11, 2025
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“ I think that the theater is the initial glamorizer of thought; where it can be told – without too much disguise but without too much directness either – the secrets, and thereby its antipathies and sympathies – the secrets and the knowledge of the human heart…

…I think that makes the art of the theater as important as the doctor or the psychologist or the Minister…

…I think it’s vitally important that the world knows itself and I think the theater is one of the most immediate means of expression towards that end…”

– Sir Lawrence Olivier

Set design model by Marcel Jambon for an 1895 Paris production of Giuseppe Verdi’s Otello

Demand for live events in college towns — what is now called”entertainment content” — is gathering pace; owed somewhat to an older demographic that prefers expanded social interaction to the online entertainment offerings that the younger demographic prefers*.  We see an expansion of the market in the construction of architecturally astonishing buildings; though the circumstances of pandemic has changed everything.

Today our interest lies in the complex safety and sustainability characteristics of the physical infrastructure — with particular interest in the fire protection, environmental air and electrotechnologies required to make them safe and sustainable.   This facility class is far more complicated technologically and operates at significantly higher risk than, say, classrooms or office space.

The Entertainment Services and Technology Association is one of the first names in trade associations that support the ‘business of show business’ through networking, safe practices, education, and representation.  We follow the standards making activity of its technical committees and monitor public commenting opportunities.  ESTA releases markups of its consensus products for public comment at a fairly brisk pace on its standards development landing page:

ESTA Public Review Drafts

Consultation on an illumination standard runs through April 7th.

Transcripts of related standards:

2026 National Electrical Code Public Input Report CMP-15

2026 National Electrical Code Second Draft Report CMP-15

You may obtain an electronic copy at the link above, along with a comment form.  Send your comments to Karl Ruling, (212) 244-1505, standards@esta.org with an optional copy to psa@ansi.org).  We encourage our colleagues in school districts and in colleges and universities large and small; with responsibilities for the safety and sustainability of cultural resource properties, media centers, performance venues to participate in the ESTA technical standards development program.

Glorya Kaufman School of Dance / University of Southern California

We keep the ESTA suite on the standing agenda of our Lively Arts colloquia; open to everyone.   See our CALENDAR for the next online meeting.

Since the electrotechnologies for the lively arts have evolved into complex, interoperable systems we also collaborate with the IEEE Education & Healthcare Facilities Committee on technical specifics.  That committee meets online four times per month in European and American time zones.

“We’re all actors: We all play different roles in different situations.”

Marlon Brando

 

Issue: [Various]

Category: Electrical, Infotech, Lively Arts,

Colleagues: Mike Anthony, Christine Fischer, Mike Hiler, Nehad El-Sherif

ARCHIVE: ESTA


*More >>

State Capitals And College Towns: A Recipe For Success

Baby Boomers Are Retiring to College Towns

The original University of Michigan codes and standards advocacy enterprise interviewed an ESTA affiliate in 2015:


Entertainment Occupancies

Graduation, Dating, Engagements, Weddings, Births & Obituaries

July 11, 2025
mike@standardsmichigan.com
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Weddings

 

 

Nine years later and first day as husband and wife they got to finally sneak a kiss in one of the first places they ever passed notes

Hun School Of Princeton

“…I have spread my dreams under your feet; Tread softly because you tread on my dreams.” –W.B. Yeats | ‘He Wishes for the Cloths of Heaven’

“Nature’s Masterpiece”

Several colleges and universities have “kissing benches” or similar traditions tied to romance on campus.

Michigan State University Beaumont Tower: Nick and Myra Kanillopoulos

Syracuse University. Kissing Bench: This bench on the Quad is steeped in tradition. Legend has it that if a couple kisses on the bench, they will eventually marry. Conversely, if a single person sits there alone, they risk staying single forever.

University of Idaho.  Hello Walk and Kissing Rock: While not a bench, this area on campus features a large rock where students have historically kissed. It’s a romantic tradition for couples at the university.

Florida State University Kissing Bench

University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

Clemson University Lover’s Lane

Illinois State University

University of Cambridge: St. John’s College Bridge of Sighs

University of Oxford: The Bridge of Sighs

University of Bath Somerset County: Sham Castle

Weddings

LIVE: 91.3 FM Cal Poly Student Radio

July 10, 2025
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“Radio is the perfect medium for communication.
It is instantaneous, and unlike television,
it allows you to use your imagination.”
-Guglielmo Marconi

CLICK IMAGE TO START LIVESTREAM

Radio

Patent No. 558,393 : Flaked cereals and process of preparing same

July 10, 2025
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Community Hub Schools

July 10, 2025
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Donegan Acoustics

The larger part of using the global standardization system to make the real assets of educational settlements safer, simpler, lower-cost and longer-lasting is to make every effort to use those spaces and occupancies effectively.  Today we examine a few case studies and explore possibilites mapped in safety and sustainability catalogs of standards developers whose titles become the basis for government regulation.  Use the login credentials at the upper right of our home page at the usual hour.

The topic is necessarily cross-cutting and technologically interdisciplinary so we draw from the syllabi of colloquia we previously covered.

Ædificare & Utilization

Data Points: National Center for Education Statistics

Child Day Care

Kitchen Wiring

Laundry

Case Study: Center Grove Community School Corporation Security

Clery Act

Summer Sport

Related:

Here are 10 current trends in the construction of K-12 education facilities in the United States, based on recent industry insights and developments. These trends reflect a focus on safety, sustainability, technology, and evolving educational needs, drawn from sources like architectural firms, construction reports, and educational design analyses.

  1. Enhanced Security Systems
    Schools are prioritizing advanced security measures, such as wearable panic devices for staff, access control systems, secure vestibules, surveillance technology, and remote hallway gate controls. Many districts are proactively upgrading security as standalone projects rather than waiting for renovations, aiming to create safer environments without highly visible fortifications. For example, Solomon-Solis Cohen Elementary in Philadelphia integrates park-like settings with security features to balance safety and community appeal.

  2. Flexible and Adaptable Learning Spaces
    Traditional static classrooms are being replaced with modular, flexible spaces that support diverse teaching styles and learning needs. These include movable partitions, demountable walls, and multi-purpose areas like learning stairs, which serve as seating or presentation spaces. Schools like Warsaw High School use learning stairs as dynamic hubs for collaboration, allowing easy reconfiguration for group work, individual study, or CTE programs.

  3. Sustainability and Net-Zero Energy Design
    Schools are adopting eco-friendly designs, such as energy-efficient HVAC systems, solar panels, and green materials, to achieve net-zero energy goals. The transition to electric vehicle (EV) bus fleets with charging infrastructure is also growing, as seen in districts incrementally upgrading transportation facilities. These designs educate students about sustainability while reducing operational costs.

  4. Improved Indoor Air Quality and HVAC Upgrades
    With 38% of U.S. public schools built before 1970, upgrading HVAC systems is a priority to improve air quality and prevent health issues like mold. The American Society of Civil Engineers noted in 2021 that 41% of districts need HVAC updates in at least half their schools, costing billions. Post-COVID, schools are using federal relief funds to enhance ventilation, as seen in Clark County School District’s UL Verified Ventilation mark.

  5. Career and Technical Education (CTE) and STEAM Facilities
    There’s a resurgence in CTE and STEAM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Arts, Mathematics) spaces, with schools building specialized labs for robotics, welding, automotive, and filmmaking. For instance, Merrillville Community School Corporation added a 57,000-square-foot CTE addition with state-of-the-art labs. These spaces prepare students for skilled trades and tech careers, reflecting a shift away from college-only pathways.

  6. Technology Integration and Wi-Fi Optimization
    Schools are designing comprehensive Wi-Fi coverage using predictive modeling to eliminate dead zones, ensuring access for all users (students, staff, parents). Classrooms are equipped with IT infrastructure for digital learning, including VR/AR tools and BIM (Building Information Modeling) for design precision. Santa Ana High School’s transformation of a library into a digital media lab exemplifies this trend.

  7. Health and Wellness-Focused Design
    Designs prioritize mental and physical well-being with natural lighting, ergonomic furniture, and outdoor learning spaces like gardens or courtyards. The “One Health” movement, cited by PBK Architects, emphasizes environments where students and buildings are holistically healthy. Twin Buttes High School in North Dakota incorporates food sovereignty programs with greenhouses and culinary labs to promote wellness.

  8. Community-Centric Facilities
    Schools are being designed as community hubs, hosting events and serving as emergency shelters or voting places. Flexible designs allow spaces to be used by the community year-round, generating revenue. For example, Eddy & Debbie Peach Elementary School includes outdoor art and science labs that double as community spaces, fostering engagement and connection.

  9. Resilient and Durable Construction
    New builds and renovations use resilient materials to withstand high-traffic use and extreme weather, adhering to updated building codes for fire resistance and accessibility. Designers assess existing structures for “good bones” to repurpose them cost-effectively, as seen in HED’s redesign of Santa Monica High School with adaptable, demountable walls.

  10. Collaborative Design with Stakeholder Input
    Construction projects increasingly involve teachers, parents, and students in the planning process through public meetings and surveys to align facilities with community needs. Transparent communication, as emphasized by Bryan Construction, ensures designs reflect educational goals, such as sustainable curricula or flexible spaces, enhancing teacher and student satisfaction.

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